反彈之後，何種資產仍算便宜?

2020 年 4 月 12 日 555 則留言
圖片來源: investorplace

最近各類資產的表現其實很不符合過往的認知: 股價反應企業營運基本面。大家都知道受疫情影響、民眾減少消費的情況下，今年企業的獲利一定不好，但股價還是大幅反彈，主要還是因為美國聯準會Fed、美國政府的強力維穩措施(大撒幣)。Fed在4/09又推出一系列政策，告訴大家: 撒錢無極限。其中比較讓市場驚訝的是，Fed開始買進垃圾等級的公司債，支持近期從投資等級被降評成垃圾等級的公司。

圖片來源: 工商時報

以下是科技新報對Fed買入公司債政策的相關敘述: 「依據「次級市場公司信用機制」（Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility，SMCCF），紐約聯邦儲備銀行將透過特殊目的工具（special purpose vehicle，SPV），在次級市場購買符合資格的公司債及相關 ETF。財政部會對 SPV 投資 750 億美元，以同時支持 SMCCF 及「初級市場公司信用機制」（Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility，PMCCF）。PMCCF、SMCCF 初始配置的資金分別為 500 億、250 億美元。聲明指出，Fed 將收購符合資格的投資等級、垃圾等級公司債和相關 ETF。收購個別公司債資格方面，Fed 要求發行債券的企業必須在美國創立，且 2020 年 3 月 22 日以前，保有至少「BBB-/Baa3」投資等級信評，若 3 月 22 日後遭降評，則調降後至少需保有「BB-/Ba3」的非投資等級信評。Fed 並表示，SMCCF 會以公平的市場價值在次級市場購買合格公司債，同時會避免購入價格遠超過估計淨值的合格 ETF。另外，SMCCF 最晚 9 月 30 日以前就會停止收購公司債及相關 ETF，除非這項機制獲得 Fed 及財政部展延。」

隨著Fed持續公布新的救市措施，大家也好奇如果再有更糟的情況，Fed還有什麼招? 或許離Fed買進美股的日子已經不遠了。2019/01/01至2020/04/10這段期間來看，可以看到各類資產從高點到低點至少都跌20%以上，但在一連串救市措施之後也反彈不少，特別是債券類ETF反彈幅度驚人，現在已不算便宜了。目前看起來，韓股跟原油還算便宜。韓國之前疫情嚴重，但現在新增確診人數控制得相當好。原油方面，雖然幾個產油大國減產還喬不攏，但油價確實是在近幾年來的低點。目前股價是否已經完全反映疫情的利空消息呢? 接下來4月中下旬的美國Q1財報季將見真章。

資料來源: Bloomberg；整理: Jackie Invest

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在〈“反彈之後，何種資產仍算便宜?”〉中有 555 則留言

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